Nearly a third of trucks in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) could go electric today using commercially available battery-electric trucks (BET), according to new research from the Pembina Institute. That figure could rise to more than 50% by the early 2030s, if the right policies are in place.
The study analyzed real-world travel data from trucks (Classes 3 through 8) operated in GTHA region, collected through Altitude by Geotab, which has roughly 250,000 telematics units installed in light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across Canada. The telematics data spanned two one-month periods, January 2023 and July 2023, to capture potential seasonal variations between winter and summer.
The analysis considered whether trucks return to a fixed base long enough to recharge overnight, and whether their daily travel distances are within the range of commercially available battery-electric trucks under both summer and winter conditions.
Most trucks analyzed had predictable, limited daily ranges that could be met even with conservative assumptions — including up to 50% range reductions in winter. The report estimates that 40% of trucks could rely on overnight charging at their home base, without needing public infrastructure.
So, Pembina identified substantial electrification potential across the region, as there are currently more than 1.3 million commercial vehicles registered across the six GTHA municipalities — including 350,788 in Toronto, more than 300,000 in Peel, and nearly 240,000 in York Region alone. Even a modest uptake of zero-emission vehicles among this segment would have significant environmental and economic impact.
Electrification potential
On average, Classes 3 and 4 trucks in the GTHA travel about 80 km per day, Classes 5 and 6 trucks 85 km, Class 7 trucks 95 km, and Class 8 trucks 180 km.
Across all classes, a significant share of vehicles operate with daily ranges well below 160 km. The report found that 85–90% of Classes 3 and 4 trucks, 75–80% of Classes 5 and 6 trucks, and 60–70% of Classes 7 and 8 trucks had duty cycles within that threshold, making them well suited for electrification using currently available models.
Duty cycles also varied across municipalities. Class 3 trucks in Brampton and Hamilton tended to travel longer distances than those in Toronto, Mississauga, or Markham. Even within a single city, variation was observed — in Toronto, for example, five FSAs, or forward sortation areas, (M9W, M9Y, M9L, M1P and M3J) accounted for nearly 30% of all truck trips. These differences, Pembina argues, highlight the importance of region-specific analysis instead of relying on province-wide or national averages.
Charging access also plays a central role in determining electrification readiness. According to the report, a high share of trucks in all classes return to base for long enough periods to allow full overnight charging using either Level 2 or 100 kW DC chargers.
Most Classes 3 and 4 trucks dwell for at least 1.5 hours at base, 85% of Classes 5 and 6 trucks for two hours or more, and 70-75% of Classes 7 and 8 trucks for four hours or longer — durations that meet the charging time requirements for most available electric models.
While on average, 40% of truck trips end in the FSA of origin, the study also highlights variation in electrification potential across municipalities.
On average, 45% of Class 8 truck trips return to their home FSA, slightly higher than the class-wide average of around 40%.
The report also examined where trucks travel, noting that 60% of all trips both start and end within the GTHA, though this share varies across municipalities as well.
In Brampton, for instance, 80% of truck trips remain local, while only 47% of trips in Toronto do. Class-wise, 70% of Class 8 truck trips start and end within the GTHA, compared to the class-wide average of about 60%. Looking province-wide, 97% of truck trips that start in the five municipalities finish elsewhere in Ontario, a trend consistent across classes. Class 3 trucks are the most localized, with 99% of trips staying within Ontario, compared to 95% for Class 8.
Despite the technical readiness, barriers remain. Pembina points to policy gaps, high up-front vehicle costs, limited access to public charging, and permitting challenges. Smaller fleets in particular often lack the capacity to navigate these issues without targeted support.
Recommendations
To address these gaps, the Pembina Institute outlines a series of actions Ontario can take to support truck electrification.
The government should provide targeted funding to small and medium enterprises to help purchase electric trucks and install private charging infrastructure, allowing local fleets to remain competitive by reducing long-term fuel and maintenance costs. The Ontario Energy Board should also enable utilities to offer reduced electricity rates to public charging station operators, making charging more affordable and widespread, Pembina suggests.
At the same time, it calls on the province to collaborate with the Ontario Electrical Safety Authority and the Canadian Standards Association to establish standardized charging requirements. These would ensure consistency, reliability, and interoperability across all new stations. Municipalities, meanwhile, should prioritize key freight zones and streamline permitting to accelerate the deployment of truck-ready public chargers. According to the report, each new station could create up to 10 local jobs.
Improved coordination with utilities is also essential. Pembina recommends that fleet operators and charging providers engage utilities early in the process to ensure timely grid upgrades and effective demand-side energy management, preventing costly delays.
For more details, read the report here.
