Carriers see freight market conditions improving in the back half of 2025, according to a new survey. However, they continue to be unwilling to invest in new equipment.
ACT Research notes sales of highway tractors are steady as fleets snap up the last of the tariff-free units available, but orders remain weak. It’s reducing its forecast for the remainder of the year.
Survey shows surprising optimism
A new survey from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg showed carriers and brokers continue to be resilient in the face of a long-running freight market downturn, and have confidence in where the market is headed in the second half of this year.
“Many carriers and brokers remained optimistic through the first half of 2025 despite facing difficulties,” said Todd Markusic, Customer Insights Manager at truckstop.com. “While the freight market underperformed in the second quarter, with no clear resolution for how tariffs will impact the economy, many in the industry are expecting a recovery in the next six months.”
Eighty-five per cent of carriers and 83% of brokers believe volume will be either up or remain flat over the next six months. This optimism prevails despite only 16% of carriers and 36% of brokers reporting year-over-year revenue growth — a drop from previous quarters.
Among carriers:
- 17% said rates have improved since Q2 of 2024, and 42% expect rates to rise in Q3 (down 13 points from Q1);
- 56% believe load volumes during 2Q25 were up or flat compared to the same period last year;
- Nearly half (48%) are unsure when rates will bottom out, a 7-point increase from Q1, yet 84% think rates will go up or stay flat over the next six months;
- Similarly, 79% expect their revenues to remain stable or increase for the next 6 months.
Only 19% of carriers reported load volumes are up year over year through the first half of 2025, but 52% expect demand to increase in the next three to six months.
Only 21% of responding carriers said they plan to purchase new equipment, down from 38% in Q1 as they remain cautious. Thirty-eight per cent of responding carriers said they believe tariffs will “significantly” hurt the industry.
Tractor and vocational truck demand continues to dwindle
With so many fleets lacking confidence to add equipment, it’s little wonder that ACT Research is pulling back its forecasts for tractor and vocational truck demand.
“This is the time of the year that heavy truck orders are weak. That seasonal weakness has been compounded by the aftershocks of April’s tariff and policy announcements, which continue to reverberate,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst.
“Policy uncertainty coupled with still weak for-hire rate and profitability fundamentals, have exacerbated that seasonal order weakness.”
Tractor sales have been firm, ACT noted, as some buyers snapped up units before the price increases associated with tariffs took hold. But ACT says sales will weaken as those tariff-free trucks disappear from dealer lots.
Regarding vocational demand, Vieth added, “Much like the tractor market, vocational orders continue to trend lower.”
Spot market loads drop nearly 10%
It was a mixed bag for rates on the spot market, with van rates declining and reefer rates gaining. Loads were down sharply on the week ended Aug. 8.
“Broker-posted spot rates in the Truckstop.com system for dry van and refrigerated equipment moved in opposite directions,” the company said. “Refrigerated spot rates posted a modest increase for a second straight week, but dry van and flatbed rates declined marginally. Spot rates continue to move largely according to seasonal expectations. Total volume was more than 9% higher than it was during the same 2024 week, although both dry van and refrigerated loads were down y/y.”
