It was a mixed bag of economic trucking news over the past week, with an uptick in for-hire truck tonnage and improving rates on the spot market for van and reefer carriers.
However, fleets continue to sit on their wallets, sending trailer orders down sharply as the effect of tariffs and still-weak freight fundamentals continue to weigh on the industry.
Truck tonnage nudges upward
U.S. for-hire truck tonnage increased 0.6% in July, according to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), but has been relatively flat since March.
“July truck tonnage increased sequentially, but did not erase the 0.7% decline in June,” said ATA chief economist Bob Costello. “Since March, truck tonnage has been in a tight range. The good news is truck freight volumes haven’t fallen much over that period, but we are not seeing many increases either. In July, there were mixed drivers of truck tonnage with housing starts and retail sales up, while manufacturing output was flat to down depending on the metric.”
Tonnage is unchanged year to date over the same period in 2024, while July’s tonnage was 0.1% off year-ago levels.
Trailer orders fall sharply
FTR reports preliminary net trailer orders fell sharply in July to 7,794 units, down 39% from June, but 23% higher year over year on weak 2024 volumes.
Orders remain well below the 10-year July average of 14,856 units.
“The U.S. trailer market is now under mounting pressure as tariff exposure broadens. Higher tariff rates for most major U.S. trading partners kicked in on Aug. 7,” said Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
“Potentially more directly significant for the trailer sector is an expansion of the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs as of Aug. 18 that apparently affects not only imported key components but also the steel and aluminum content of fully assembled imported trailers.”
Moyer went on to say OEMs and suppliers must decide whether to absorb margin losses or raise prices.
“Meanwhile, many fleets are extending replacement cycles – leaning more heavily on used trailers – and deferring expansion, thus dampening demand for new build,” Moyer added.
“The market is shifting toward heightened price sensitivity and cautious capital spending with some supply chains likely considering domestic reorientation – but at structurally higher cost levels. Policy uncertainty is compounding volatility, making long-term planning increasingly difficult.”
ACT Research counted 8,700 orders, a drop of more than 6,600 units from June.
“Sequentially, lower July net order intake was expected, as it is one of the weaker order months of the annual cycle, especially given that June’s data surprised to the upside,” said Jennifer McNealy, director CV market research and publications at ACT Research.
“While orders, regardless of comparisons, support build rates in 2025, concern remains that moderating economic activity, ongoing weak for-hire carrier profitability, and ambiguous policy shifts remain as challenges to stronger demand. ACT’s expectations for subdued build and order intake levels during 2025 remain intact.”
Trucking conditions worsened in June
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index fell to a negative reading of -1.83 in June, after spiking unexpectedly to 3.56 in May.
The negative swing was primarily due to freight rates and fuel prices, FTR reported. It anticipates the index – which measures five metrics affecting overall industry health – will remain mostly neutral for the rest of the year.
“We still forecast a steadily but only modestly more favorable market for carriers next year. However, swings in freight volume and fuel prices – and to a lesser extent, freight rates – continue to generate volatility in trucking conditions,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president, trucking.
“Capacity utilization has been the most stable factor, but it has been only marginally beneficial to trucking companies. So far, the economy is weathering tariffs and other stresses better than anticipated, and our latest freight outlook is not as weak as it was previously. At least in the near term, though, we still believe forecast risks are weighted more to the downside than the upside.”
Spot market rates get a lift
Spot market rates for dry van and refrigerated equipment got a better-than-expected bounce in the week ended Aug. 15.
Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported reefer rates rose for the third consecutive week for the first time this years and are above year-ago levels. Dry van rates recovered the prior week’s loss and were slightly above year over year levels for the first time in six weeks.
Flatbed rates were higher than the same week in 2024 for the first time in five weeks.
While load postings were up, so too were equipment postings, keeping the Market Demand Index flat.
