Class 8 truck manufacturers need to be vigilant about managing production in light of weak demand, with no near-term catalysts for a sharp improvement in sight.
That was the message from Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst, commercial vehicles, speaking at the company’s 2025 Transportation Conference.
“Fleet confidence is eroding,” Moyer said, noting a freight market recovery isn’t expected until the second half of 2026.
Truck makers are challenged by weak orders, high inventories, and ongoing weak freight fundamentals. Meanwhile, Moyer suggested buyers will see the costs of tariffs passed through to fleet buyers over the next three to six months, which could also curtail demand.
Year-to-date orders are down 29% compared to the same period last year, Moyer noted. Backlogs are quickly evaporating, and Moyer says some OEMs may delay opening 2026 order boards until they have more clarity on the impact of tariffs.
“There’s definitely a risk of order season being below expectations based on uncertainty and market conditions,” he said.
North American Class 8 sales were down 15% year over year in July and are off 9% year to date. “Not as bad as orders, but definitely a notable impact,” Moyer said. “And further evidence OEMs need to reduce production levels to help manage inventories.”
Those inventories are at near-record levels at 92,400 units, FTR reported, up 1% year over year. Both on-highway and vocational truck inventories have risen.
Factory shipments through July have been volatile, down 19% year over year.
Looking ahead, FTR sees North American Class 8 truck production of 247,000 units this year, down from 331,000 last year. Anti-climactic for a year that was supposed to be buoyed by a pre-buy in advance of since-paused EPA27 emissions regulations.
“We expect to see reduced build levels through this year and the first half of next year,” said Moyer. But if you’re looking for a silver lining, he said the market should improve in the second half of 2026 and into a markedly better 2027, and if those EPA27 emissions regulations do happen, a possible pre-buy late next year.
