SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS: Nearly 3/4 of small importers report significant cost increases from tariffs, with half reducing shipments entirely. 44% face cost spikes of 20%+ while 52% expect weaker holiday sales, according to a new Freightos/Clearit survey of 390+ North American businesses.
This snapshot reveals just the surface of how deeply the ongoing trade tensions are affecting small and medium-sized businesses. As tariff policies become clearer, the outlook grows increasingly concerning for these companies. Below, we explore the comprehensive findings from our latest survey and what they mean for businesses navigating the uncertain trade landscape in 2025.
Businesses Under Pressure: The Widening Effects of Trade Disruption
A recent Freightos/Clearit survey of 390+ North American importers paints a concerning picture of the trade war’s ongoing impact on businesses. Companies are feeling the squeeze, with significant disruptions to their operations so far this year. And now that tariff policies are becoming clearer, the outlook on costs and sales is increasingly worrying, as most respondents believe the worst may be yet to come.
72% of businesses reported moderate to significant increases in landed costs and nearly 50% have reduced shipping activity due to tariffs already in place; over half expect weaker sales as a result. Importers say the 90-day extension of 30% US tariffs on China will not lead to a significant freight rebound this year for several reasons, including earlier frontloading and the status quo already pricing some shippers out.
The findings suggest broader economic consequences, including:
- Diminished international trade relationships
- Decreased consumer strength
- Potentially existential threats for some businesses, especially SMBs
One importer summed it up as follows: “The tariffs combined with the sinking value of the dollar have created a 30% increase in costs just in a few months. Devastating to our bottom line.”
Note that this survey is the third in a series of surveys conducted across small importers. For previous versions, please see here and here.
Tariff Business Impact: Costs Rising, Shipments Falling
This year has been punctuated by tariff announcements including the “Liberation Day” 10 % universal tariff on April 5, country-specific reciprocal tariffs that were announced on April 2 and later paused twice, first until July 8, then again until August 7, when they finally went live. Many of these announcements were provided with what businesses felt were insufficient warning, leading to uncertainty.
Clarity…and Concern
Now, as recent trade agreements and additional sectoral tariffs are clearer, most (56%) businesses report more concern about negative impacts than they had due to earlier tariff changes.
This worry for the future is particularly striking when taking into account how dramatically their businesses have already been impacted:
- Widespread disruption: 84% said frequent tariff changes have been disruptive or very disruptive to business.
- Substantial cost increases: 72% reported that tariffs have already increased their costs by at least 5%. A shocking 44% say costs have climbed by 20% or more.
- Reduced shipping: This has already led to reduced import volumes from small businesses; 50% of businesses have reduced shipment volumes due to higher costs.
- Growing concern: 57% are more concerned about tariffs negatively impacting their business than they were earlier in the year. For comparison, when we asked this question in May, only 31% were more concerned than they were earlier in the year.
- Consumer weakness: Concern about the downfunnel impact of weaker demand is growing. Slightly more than half (52%) expected weaker back-to-school and holiday sales than last year, compared to only 35% who had expected lower Memorial Day sales due to tariffs when asked back in May.
- International standing: Whether the tariffs are removed or not, there could be long-lasting consequences. Some 60% think the trade war has weakened the standing of US businesses as trading partners.
How am I supposed to stay in business if I have $400 tariffs and fees on a $700 order that the client won’t pay?”
– Small importer reporting 20%+ cost increases
Freight Impact: Scrambling for Strategy
Rapid changes are also sending shippers scrambling for strategies to help mitigate the trade war’s impact, taking action such as accelerating orders, changing production centers, or even cancelling. Beyond the 50% who have reduced shipment volumes due to higher costs, about 15% each have:
- Pulled holiday orders forward
- Paused or delayed holiday orders
- Canceled manufacturing mid-order
- Moved some sourcing to US
We paused for a period of time when [tariffs were] initially announced. Now we feel there is some stability with the pauses being extended, but before that the uncertainty was so high that we decided to wait to see what would happen.
– Furniture importer
Adapting to these changes has not been one-size-fits-all – businesses are reaching for anything that works to manage the unpredictability.
90-Day China Tariff Extension: Limited Relief
In May and June, the initial postponement of China tariffs led to a brief spike in shipments, as importers accelerated their shipments to beat the tariffs. This front-loading, however, was quite short-lived, as demonstrated in the chart below:
The recent postponement did not have a similar effect.
While some importers said the recent extension of the 30% US tariff on Chinese imports is allowing them to restart shipments, overall, the extension is not triggering a second peak season wave. Instead, it’s having diverse effects on different businesses:
- Many are unaffected due to prior frontloading or because sectoral tariffs are a bigger challenge
- Others expected the 30% to remain in place and have continued shipping as usual
- Some are already priced out by 30% baseline tariffs
As one importer said: “We had to buy more than usual while we could get product at a lower price. 2025 costs will be higher than usual with a greater risk of deadstock”
Another described uncertainty that prompted them to restructure their entire supply chain: “Most if not all my importing has moved out of China. I’m too worried tariffs could switch from one day to the next even though there is a 90-day extension.”
Analysis and Going Forward
The survey results paint a picture of businesses caught in an economic crossfire, with potential ripple effects that could reshape supply chains and trade relationships for years to come.
Long Term Structural Changes Ahead
“The survey shows that the trade war has already negatively impacted many US importers, and that expectations of new or expanded tariffs and the duties applied under the trade deals of the last few weeks has shippers bracing for possibly more severe challenges to business moving forward,” says Judah Levine, Freightos Head of Research. The data suggests we’re witnessing not just temporary disruption but potentially long-term structural changes to international sourcing and pricing strategies.
Impossible To Forecast or Plan
Adam Lewis, President of Clearit Customs points to the particularly hard hit SMBs have taken: “With still so much uncertainty in the trade environment, this survey makes one thing clear: Unfortunately, small and medium sized businesses are bearing the brunt of the trade war. Unlike larger corporations, they don’t have the same insulation or sophistication to absorb frequent tariff changes, currency swings, and rising costs. The unknowns have been the most damaging, making it nearly impossible to forecast, budget, or protect margins.”
Looking ahead, the trade landscape could continue to stabilize in coming months with more agreements reaching finalization. However, the combination of disrupted supply chains, weakened consumer sentiment, and eroded international relationships creates a challenging environment that will likely require businesses to maintain flexibility in sourcing, pricing, and inventory management for the foreseeable future.
