There continues to be weakness in the Class 8 market, as fleets weigh the impact of tariffs and the general economy.
The Canadian spot market strengthened in May, and the U.S. spot market saw rates tick up in the most recent week. However, ACT Research suggests the broader freight markets remain flat.
Class 8 orders show continued weakness
This was supposed to be a strong year for Class 8 orders, as fleets were expected to pre-buy trucks ahead of EPA27 emissions standards. However, those standards are now in doubt, and a trade war has stirred up fresh fears about the economy and freight demand.
FTR reported preliminary Class 8 orders of just 8,900 units in June, a 25% drop from May and 36% decline year over year. Net orders are well below the 10-year average for the month of 19,213 units, FTR reports, and the lowest for June since 2009.
The weak demand affected both on-highway and vocational segments.
“Market uncertainty is further heightened by the potential implementation of Section 232 tariffs on Class 8 trucks and their components along with anticipated revisions to EPA27 NOx emissions standards,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles with FTR. “As a result, many fleets are postponing equipment purchases. Record-high inventories are placing additional downward pressure on demand and production. “
ACT Research reported Classes 5-8 orders of 21,300 units were down 39% year over year.
“Publicly traded for-hire fleets ended Q1 ’25 with the weakest net income margins since Q1 2010,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Private fleets have spent the past two years adding fleet capacity and have little need for additional supply. On the vocational side, worsening housing and construction markets and regulation uncertainty has sapped strength that looked all but certain at the beginning of the year.”
Flat market in May: ACT Research
Freight volumes softened and capacity decreased in May, according to ACT Research, causing its For-Hire Trucking Index to remain flat.
“The myriad impacts of tariffs and opaqueness regarding future trade decisions have destroyed business planning and slowed economic activity,” said Vieth. “While we may see some improvement in trade volumes ahead of the Aug. 9 China trade decision, the pull-forward of freight into Q1 has necessitated a payback later this year. Consumers, so far, have continued to spend, but higher prices due to tariff-driven inflation is expected to weigh on purchasing. Given the rollercoaster of policy under the new administration, freight volumes are likely to be dynamic this year.”
Volumes were soft for the third straight month while capacity shrunk slightly.
“Roadcheck may have contributed to some capacity shedding this month amongst the fleets in our survey, but overall market conditions are the prevailing factor behind the for-hire fleets’ capacity reductions,” Vieth explained.
“Q1 saw publicly traded TL carriers net profit margins fall to the lowest levels since the GFC [2008-2009 financial collapse], and if you factor in that fleets now have the benefit of the 2017 tax cuts, you could argue profitability conditions, or lack thereof, are worse than during the GFC,” Vieth said. “On top of that, steel, aluminum, and parts tariffs have added thousands to the cost of a tractor, and further increases may be incoming. As result of increasingly thin margins, trade/economic uncertainty, and equipment cost increases, many fleets are opting to pause or stop buying completely in 2025.”
Canadian spot market picked up in May
Loadlink reported freight activity picked up in Canada’s spot market in May, with a 9% increase in total load postings compared to April. But year-over-year volumes were down 22%.
Cross-border freight accounted for 65% of postings from Canadian Loadlink customers, with inbound volumes into Canada seeing a strong increase while southbound freight continued to decline. Domestic freight was steady.
Equipment availability rose 6% from April levels but was down 29% year over year. There were 2.77 trucks available for every load on the Loadlink board, marking a 3% tightening of capacity from April levels.
“May’s data shows early signs of the freight market stabilizing,” Loadlink said in a release. “A small month-over-month rise in load volumes and a tighter truck-to-load ratio are creating better conditions for carriers. Inbound cross-border activity picked up, while domestic freight remained steady, offering dependable work within Canada. With panic around the tariffs cooling and uncertainty still lingering, Canada’s freight market remains resilient and continues to show steady growth.”
U.S. van rates rise
Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported van rates on the U.S. spot market rose for the week ended June 27, in line with seasonal expectations.
It was the largest increase in van rates in five weeks, while reefer rates saw their biggest gain in six weeks. Flatbed rates ticked up slightly, the companies reported.
“With the increase in load postings outpacing truck postings, the Market Demand Index improved to 88.2, its strongest level in three weeks,” said Truckstop.com in a release.
