More of the same in this week’s economic trucking trends roundup, with weak Class 8 truck orders and underwhelming freight demand.
The good news is, van segment spot market rates got a Black Friday bump and overall trucking conditions improved slightly in October. Let’s have a look…
Class 8 orders continue to be depressed
Preliminary North American Class 8 orders for November totaled just 20,200 units, according to FTR, dropping 17% from October and down 44% year over year.
The 10-year average for the month is 28,910 units and the 12-month total now sits at just 214,797 units.
“So far, improved [tariff] clarity has not been enough to offset a host of challenges – weak freight fundamentals, limited carrier profitability, elevated capital costs, and so on – that continue to keep fleets on the sidelines,” said Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
“Fleets are emphasizing cost control, maintenance discipline, and asset utilization over growth, delaying any meaningful rebound in equipment demand until economic and market conditions firm. For truck manufacturers and suppliers, forward visibility remains limited, and order activity is likely to remain uneven until freight volumes and rates show a sustained recovery.”
The subdued orders continue despite improved clarity around regulations and tariffs, FTR noted. Fleets are continuing to defer replacement and expansion purchases as freight demand remains weak and capacity abundant. The industry forecaster added vocational truck demand was stronger, but still “cautious.”
With Class 8 orders down 36% year over year from September through November, the 2026 buying cycle is looking like a dud.
ACT Research reported Classes 5-8 orders of 36,000 units were down 33% year over year.
“Preliminary Class 8 orders totaled 19,700 units in November, down 47% year over year, in what is typically the year’s third strongest month for orders,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “The obvious bottleneck to stronger order activity is lack of carrier profitability. Spot rates continue to tread along the bottom, and while supply is coming out of the market, demand in key freight sectors is lagging.”
ACT reported Classes 5-7 medium-duty orders were down just 2.9% year over year, at 16,300 units. The decline was blamed on small businesses feeling the impact of tariffs, economic uncertainty and consumer pessimism “typically reserved for recessions.”
Trucking conditions improved slightly in October
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) edged up slightly in October to a positive reading of 0.89, up from 0.42 the previous month.
“Our forecasting model relies heavily on government economic data, so the 43-day shutdown has hampered our analysis as the data flow slowly resumes,” explained FTR’s vice president of trucking, Avery Vise.
“The Federal Reserve recently disclosed that manufacturing output since 2022 has been substantially weaker than previous figures indicated, including in certain capital goods needed for future industrial production. Carriers might need to reduce capacity even more than we previously thought to achieve a reasonable level of utilization, but we still believe that the only true fix for the trucking industry’s doldrums is stronger and sustained freight demand.”
Freight ‘air pocket’ materializes
ACT Research has been warning of a freight ‘air pocket’ as inventory buildups were pulled forward and says that scenario is now showing up in the data.
In its latest For-Hire Trucking Index, ACT Research reported its Volume Index fell 8.1 points to 47 in October from September’s 13-month high of 55.1.
“The payback period we’ve oft mentioned following pull-forwards appears to be roosting in Q4,” Vieth said.
“While consumers have so far remained resilient, evidence from industry participants points to a muted holiday season, with many equipment suppliers seeing very soft demand ahead of the holidays. Other key freight-generating industries like manufacturing and housing remain stuck in neutral, or worse. While data center investment growth is keeping the economy afloat, there isn’t a whole lot of freight in a data center. While the outlook in the near term is choppy for volumes broadly, just as pre-tariff shipping activity earlier this year was temporary, so too will be the paybacks.”
Capacity also declined in October, which Vieth attributed to a pullback by private fleets combined with small fleet failures.
And the supply-demand balance decreased on the month to 50.3 from a September reading of 57.6.
“The supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve meaningfully in the short term, as the payback period following the demand surge ahead of tariffs likely lasts a few months,” Vieth said. “Additionally, goods inflation may pick up as pre-tariff inventories are depleted, but tariff cuts have begun. Lower goods demand will be counteracted somewhat by capacity contractions, but lower tariffs and the end of the tariff payback may support a recovery.”
Spot market rates jump
At least spot market rates in the United States didn’t disappoint over Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping events. Truckstop.com reported spot market rates hit their highest levels in eight weeks for the week ended Nov. 28.
Dry van rates got a notable bump, the best seen since July 4. Refrigerated rates fell, as per usual, the week after U.S. Thanksgiving, and flatbed rates were flat.
“Compared to Thanksgiving week 2024, load volume for dry van and flatbed was higher this year. However, total load activity dropped by 46.2%, aligning with seasonal patterns, but the decline in loads was larger than the decline in truck postings,” truckstop.com reported. “This fluctuation caused the Market Demand Index to fall to 59.5, the lowest point since late December 2024.”
