Freight market weakness continues to be reflected in the data that crossed our inboxes this week.
For-hire truck tonnage and spot market rates slipped, while overall trucking conditions were flat.
Truck tonnage slips
For-hire truck tonnage in the U.S. slipped 0.1% in May, on the heels of a 0.5% gain in April.
“The seesaw freight demand pattern continued in April, making it difficult to discern any clear pattern in the market,” said ATA chief economist Bob Costello.
“Excluding the services economy — the largest part of economic activity — the goods market is all over the map, thus impacting freight levels. Construction is soft, manufacturing is up and down, and consumers are cautious.”
Trucking conditions flat in April
Industry forecaster FTR reported its April Trucking Conditions Index dipped back into negative territory at -0.81, from 0.28 in March.
Overall market conditions changed only marginally, the organization said, while underlying factors shifted greatly. Freight rates improved in April but volumes were down. Blame tariffs.
“Tariffs and supply chain moves to minimize them have distorted freight market dynamics even though the overall TCI implied essentially neutral trucking conditions in February through April,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president, trucking.
“As we finalize data for May and beyond, those factors and swings in diesel prices are likely to expose the true instability in the freight market. Meanwhile, developments such as rapidly rising truck insurance premiums and, plausibly, tighter scrutiny over truck drivers’ English language skills could serve to tighten capacity in the coming months. Uncertainty over the market’s direction remains quite high.”
Shipper conditions remained neutral
Shippers, meanwhile, saw conditions remain close to neutral in April, reaching -0.6 from +0.1 in March. FTR reported weaker freight volumes were a plus for shippers.
“With the tariff-avoidance phase now over and geopolitical developments taking a higher profile, we expect more variability in freight market conditions for shippers than we have seen for 2025 so far,” FTR’s Vise said.
“Certainly, fuel costs have been highly volatile recently, but freight dynamics also seem less predictable. Tariff policies are still up in the air, and the stimulative effects of the presumed enactment of a tax bill are unclear. Also, an apparent sharp rise in truckers’ insurance premiums could begin to affect capacity in addition to the newly heightened scrutiny over drivers’ English language skills that we have noted previously.”
Spot market van rates remain soft
Truckstop.com reported spot market rates ran below 2024 comparable levels for the week ended June 20. Load postings were also down year over year in the dry van and refrigerated segments.
Flatbed rates showed their first YoY drop in 15 weeks, but volumes stayed strong.
“History shows the current week and next week as reliably stronger weeks for dry van and refrigerated spot rates due to strength from produce and the run-up to Independence Day celebrations,” Truckstop.com reported. “However, flatbed spot rates typically begin a modest decline before leveling off in early August.”
With the decrease in load postings exceeding the dip in truck postings, the Market Demand Index declined to 82.6, the lowest level in three weeks.
