A survey of small fleets and owner-operators reflects increasing confidence about market conditions, thanks to improving conditions seen in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Meanwhile, the spot market in Canada and the U.S. is improving, particularly in Canada. Loadlink Technologies shares some possible explanations for the improvement, among them a possible race to beat U.S.-imposed tariffs.
‘Trucking cycle has turned’: Bloomberg
Small fleets and owner-operators shared increasing optimism in the most recent Truckstop/Bloomberg survey, thanks to improving conditions in the fourth quarter of 2024.
“While many carriers feel that rates and demand have yet to reach optimal levels, there is growing optimism about the outlook,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “We believe the trucking cycle has turned, which should drive better spot and contractual rates, as well as robust earnings for carriers this year.”
Among owner-operators, 55% expect volume to increase over the next three to six months, up 15% from Q3 2024. Many reported they enjoyed stronger spot market conditions in Q4 2024.
The Q4 survey also showed 51% of respondents expect rate improvements in the next three to six months, a 22% jump. Truckstop data shows spot rates rose 1.5% in Q4 and were up 7.8% year over year.
However, carriers still expressed some uncertainty about the path ahead. While their outlook on the economy has improved, but 44% say they’re unsure about their professional future in the next six months, a 9% increase from Q3’s survey.
“Our latest survey results indicate that demand is stabilizing, and conditions are becoming less challenging, leading to increased optimism among carriers,” said Kendra Tucker, chief executive officer, Truckstop.
Canada’s spot market strengthens
The most recent data from Loadlink Technologies showed strong growth in Canada’s spot market in January, with a marked increase in load volumes alongside a small decline in equipment postings.
Cross-border load postings ticked up in January, accounting for 72% of all posted loads. Outbound loads to the U.S. rose the most, up 41% year over year and 12% from December levels.
Inbound cross-border loads were up 4% year over year, but 88% from December levels. Truck availability for cross-border loads tightened, 23% YoY for inbound freight and 34% for southbound.
As a result of more freight and less equipment, the truck-to-load ratio tightened to 1.64 trucks per load, down 27% from December levels and 34% year over year.
“With only 1.64 available trucks per load posted on Loadlink in January, current spot market dynamics will favor carriers as brokers may struggle to source capacity due to rising freight volumes amidst falling truck availability,” Loadlink indicated.
Loadlink attributes improving load volumes to three factors: General seasonal trends which, since 2015, have seen January volumes exceed the December prior; economic uncertainty prompting retailers to secure inventory early; and pre-tariff stockpiling.
The January 2025 Freight Index reveals a mix of typical winter demand and businesses bracing for economic changes, particularly potential tariffs. The increase in shipping loads, especially across the border, indicates Canadian and American companies are getting ready for any future complications. However, fewer available trucks point to possible supply chain impacts, which could worsen if shipping demand stays higher than truck capacity,” Loadlink surmised.
“Economic policies, particularly regarding trade agreements and tariff changes, will continue to shape freight volumes in the coming months. Industry stakeholders should remain alert to these developments, as they could drive further fluctuations in load demand and equipment availability.”
Spot rates up in the U.S.
The spot market also looked better in the U.S. for the week ended Feb. 21, with rates up across all equipment types.
Gains in dry van and reefer rates were the largest seen so far this year and the first increases in six weeks, Truckstop reported. But dry van and refrigerated rates were negative year over year for a fifth straight week.
“Further gains in the current week would likely return van rates to positive year-over-year comparisons, as was mostly the case last fall,” reported Truckstop and FTR Transportation Intelligence. “Although flatbed spot rates lagged further behind prior-year levels than did van rates, they were at their highest level since August.
“With load postings rising much more sharply than truck postings, the Market Demand Index jumped to 81.3, the strongest level since the second week of this year. Refrigerated and flatbed were responsible for the stronger MDI as the dry van MDI eased a bit.”
