By 2030, vehicles that are not software-defined are going to look a lot like steam locomotives – they’ll be obsolete.
This according to Peter Ludwig, co-founder and chief technology officer, Applied Intuition, is because software-defined vehicles will have the ability to update software after they are shipped and delivered to a customer.
Addressing attendees at ACT Expo 2025 in Anaheim, Calif., last week, Ludwig said this will boost fuel efficiency and improve fleet operations as intelligence, logistics functionality, and features can be added.
David Liu, CEO and co-founder of Plus, said that the world is moving toward a service model. It goes beyond the transaction point; it continues through the lifetime of the product.
Technology costs money upfront and while companies are looking at total cost of ownership as they seek to transition their businesses, they are also eying return on investment.
Mathias Carlbaum, president and CEO of International, said that an immediate benefit includes predictive maintenance that helps reduce costs and boosts vehicle uptime.
More productive and efficient vehicles
He added that if autonomous capabilities go beyond what we have today, that will help reduce fuel consumption, another cost saving. In the future, there could be fewer vehicles on the road, but they would be more productive and efficient, the International leader added.
Plus’ Liu said that autonomous trucks will be the biggest invention since the diesel engine. “The next five to 10 years will see this technology applied commercially in the trucking space. It will fundamentally transform how we do business,” he said.
Trucking’s a low-margin business plagued with driver shortages, and increasing costs of fuel, maintenance and insurance.
The power of autonomy
Liu said that autonomy will address these challenges, saving up to 40 to 50% in overall operating costs, while being safer on the road. He added that the industry is at the inflection point of the next revolution.
International’s Carlbaum echoed that the revolution has begun. The combination of available technology, regulations and fleets that are leaning into the space are all playing their part, he added.
Drivers are not being taken out of the truck, for now. The first step will be automating the jobs that drivers don’t like doing. For example, long-haul routes that keep them away from home for days and sometimes weeks at a time. This going to happen over decades, Liu said.
His reasoning is if 1% of the problem is solved, transportation capacity will be increased by 1%. Year by year, this will grow and scale up, he noted.
From confined areas to the highway
Catharina Modahl Nilsson, member of the executive board of Traton SE, group product management, Traton, said that the company is already selling autonomous vehicles for confined areas.
She noted that the company has a number of customers in Australia for open pit mining. Traton, International and Plus are going to the next step, from confined areas on to the highway. Nilsson added that this will likely happen in the U.S. before Europe.
Applied Intuition’s Ludwig said that artificial intelligence is going to lower the barrier to entry to create applications, or apps as they better known, for the industry. This will also lower the barrier to entry for analyzing that data and getting business value out of it.
Smartphone and tablet apps
He added that now a lot can be done with just a tablet or smartphone. In the past, expensive diagnostic tools and trained operators were needed.
With software defined vehicles, an intuitive application will have instructions built in. Ludwig said, “The industry is going to change pretty quickly.” He added that AI will tell you what to look for and how to perform the task.
Liu predicted that in 30 years there will be a fully autonomous, connected electric transportation system.
