Optimism across the U.S. manufacturing sector is rising, but trade uncertainties and health care costs remain top concerns, according to the National Association of Manufacturers’ fourth-quarter outlook survey.
NAM said 69.9% of survey respondents reported a positive outlook for their companies, up from 65% in the third quarter.
“In line with the improvement in the outlook, companies expect most indices to improve marginally over the next 12 months,” said NAM Chief Economist Victoria Bloom. “For example, manufacturers predict sales will increase 2.8%, up from 2.6% in Q3, and capital investments will grow 1.4%, up from 1% in the prior quarter. That said, while sentiment has improved, we are still below the historical average of 74%.”
The increase in optimism was tied to certain Trump administration policies like regulatory changes and tax levels in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
However, trade uncertainties topped the list of challenges, with 80.3% of respondents reporting they have paid tariffs on imported manufacturing inputs since the start of the year. Additionally, health care and insurance costs rose to the second-highest concern at 70.2%, with more than 94% of manufacturers expecting higher health insurance premiums in 2026.
